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GenCast

Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather

Paper title GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather

Price et al. (Google DeepMind) · Weather & climate · Public: code, weights

Paper arXiv 2312.15796PDF

A conditional diffusion model: each 12-hour step is sampled by denoising, conditioned on the current and previous weather states. The denoiser encodes the grid onto a six-times-refined icosahedral mesh, processes it with a graph transformer and decodes back; sampling again gives another member of a 15-day ensemble.

Published
Nature

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